geändert / updated: 17/04/08


 ... unabhängige Analysen für die globale Polis ...

(Chronicler's; 09-03; p.3)

Detailed analysis of the election is available from opinion poll and election research institutes Infratest Dimap as well as Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
Both verify the thesis of the CSU's lead concerning home affairs topics in all electorate's groups: the CSU is thought of as more competent than the SPD in economic, social, security and education policies by all groups subdivided by age, sex, social status and confession. Having said this, it must be mentioned as well that up to one third of the people asked did not clearly prefer one party.

The conclusion that the CSU won the election because the party successfully mobilised its core voters, while SPD-voters this time made a different choice or stayed simply at home (or on the Wies'n) thus is not only plausible but backed empirically.
The SPD's result by the way is the lowest ever reached since the Bavarian parliament has been established in 1946.

The Greens in Bavaria obviously have gained a ecologically orientated core-electorate: it is the only topic in which a party got a lead over the CSU.

The FDP on the other hand cannot score either by economic or by political liberalism: the CSU already pursues an company-friendly policy which as might be acknowledged is supplemented with the catholic thinking on social policy and in contrast to political liberalism even a nationalish, authoritarian policy of the Republikaner-breed is preferred.



The political effects on Germany are difficult to assess in the short run. On the one hand the Bavarian parliament stands for about 12 million inhabitants and the state has changed from being a recipient of federal transfer money to a contributor.
(One characteristic of Germany's federalism is that states which have tax revenues above average have to contribute to a fund for states that have revenues below average. The intention of this mechanism is stipulated in the German constitution, the Basic Law, in various Articles; perhaps the most important of them are Article 20 and Article 3 defining Germany as a federal and social state and denying discrimination before the law e.g. for reasons of place of residence, respectively.)
- Bavaria's previous disadvantage of a less industrialised state has become an advantage after the demise of the heavy industries so that the state gives a benchmark for Germany in respect to unemployment: the quota is about seven percent.
Transforming a state that has been formed by the heavy industries thus far had not been a task for Bavarian minister-presidents.
The only secure assertion therefore seems to be that the CSU will demand more power in the balance with her sister party, the CDU.

(end of article)

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Struktur / sitemap 2003 (i)

Struktur / sitemap 2003 (ii)

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