(Sabre-rattling; 02-02; p.4)

Apart from the fact that this would mean breaking namely the non-proliferation treaty as well as the conventions about B- and C-weapons, such action could hardly be reasoned for by stressing the need of strategic balance. There are indeed animosities towards Iran but her officials did not promote an aggressive stance lately and even co-operated with the West in the case of intervention in Afghanistan. Other states in the region can also not be seen as potential adversaries of Iraq; with the probable exception of laicistic, western-orientated Turkey they might rather be potential Arab allies. If existing, Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction may therefore be thought of as an out-put of his aggressive striving for power or as an instrument to protect himself against intervention and overthrow.

 

Perceptions and a possible way out

Currently it seems, the perception first mentioned dominates in the Unites States. One of its proponents is the political advisor Frank Gaffney. According to him, further hesitating of the international community of states in regard to an intervention means merely allowing Hussein a welcome breathing-space to develop weapons (cf. Frank Gaffney's statements in an interview with Tim Sebastian, BBC World, Hardtalk, 15 August 2002). Assuming the secondly mentioned perception, to open up perhaps not even existing arsenals would be equal to an invitation to intervention; an Iraqi strategy of flexible response could not be pursued. A possible way out of this could be that the United Nations Security Council and its General Assembly firstly express their condemnation of any arbitrary intervention especially in regard to Iraq. In a second step Iraq had to guarantee inspectors of the United Nations in terms of time and location unrestricted, comprehensive access to arsenals and places of production. If inspectors that way could find out that there is no threat posed to international security by an Iraqi state under the Hussein-clan, existing economic sanctions could be lifted one by one. - A western-friendly regime could not be installed by such a procedure, but a calculably acting and in her military capabilities limited Iraq.

(end of article)