(Eastern floods; 02-02; p.3)
Possible prevention?
If it is human activity that sparks off rains like the ones
encountered, is open to debate among scientists and even might
not be decided at all. On the one hand the Hamburg-based meteorologist
Mojib Latif argues that about three-quarters of earth-warming
within the last century is caused by human activity which in turn
produces such strong shifts in weather. Other scientists however
point to the fact that climate changes occur over very long periods
of time and if at all discernible, are not caused by human beings.
Thus, the aforementioned line of argument is not seen unanimously
as proven and applicable to ongoing weather shifts.
Leaving the debate to meteorologists who are professionals in
analysing those arguments, one may see a general limit to natural
sciences that follow empirical research programmes. Try, observation
and analysis, the three classical steps in natural science research,
are adequate for testing a hypothesis but do not allow predictions.
An example from the world of physics may illustrate this: Pupils
usually learn that different matter of the same mass is accelerated
equally by the earth. If this acceleration persists over a defined
period of time, the result will be a calculable velocity of the
matter. In contrast to that one observes that a parachute falls
(luckily) less fast than a stone of the same mass. Does that prove
the underlying hypothesis - equal masses are accelerated equally
- wrong, not applicable or might there be other variables that
have to be taken into account? Following the described research
programme, one cannot find an answer. And that is why every prediction
based on it has to be considered with care: one cannot exclude
that a relevant variable has not been recognised while planning
the test.
Exactly that is what makes meteorology not an easy job: in their
simulations the scientists have to define relevant and irrelevant
criteria. (read on here)