(The Ströbele factor; 03-02; p.4)
The share of the Greens in a ruling coalition
with the SPD remains the same in both, reality and the calculated
scenario (It is 18 percent, ironically exactly the figure, the
liberals envisaged but clearly failed to get in second votes).
The majority of the SPD over the CDU/CSU however shrank from calculated
four seats to three. For Gerhard Schröder - provided he will be
elected as the next chancellor - that means, he might or has to
look for majorities from other parties if needed.
Comparing on the other hand the composition of
seats in the fourteenth to the fifteenth Bundestag one finds -
disregarding the PDS - that the SPD has lost seats to other parties,
the CSU has gained the most with 2.5 percent more followed by
the Greens with 2.0 percent more. The share of Greens in a coalition
with the SPD would rise from 14 percent in 1998 to 18 percent
MP Ströbele committed himself in the past to
topics centred around citizens' rights, policies of development
of third world countries and non-military security issues. He
did not refrain from formulating positions not in accordance with
the majority of his party in parliament.
That the Greens will orientate their political demands towards
Ströbele's arguments however, seems not very likely: he only represents
a minor faction of his party and a chancellor Schröder might look
for majorities with other parties concerning citizen's rights
issues or foreign affairs. That is, why Greens will probably not
have recognisable greater impact on government - apart from providing
social security to some party members in forms of posts as minister
or state's secretary.
The Ströbele factor therefore is most painful
for the PDS; on German politics - on which the Democratic Socialists
had no influence anyway - the changes in parliament will hardly
have any effect worth mentioning.
(end of article)