(The Ströbele factor; 03-02; p.4)

The share of the Greens in a ruling coalition with the SPD remains the same in both, reality and the calculated scenario (It is 18 percent, ironically exactly the figure, the liberals envisaged but clearly failed to get in second votes). The majority of the SPD over the CDU/CSU however shrank from calculated four seats to three. For Gerhard Schröder - provided he will be elected as the next chancellor - that means, he might or has to look for majorities from other parties if needed.

Comparing on the other hand the composition of seats in the fourteenth to the fifteenth Bundestag one finds - disregarding the PDS - that the SPD has lost seats to other parties, the CSU has gained the most with 2.5 percent more followed by the Greens with 2.0 percent more. The share of Greens in a coalition with the SPD would rise from 14 percent in 1998 to 18 percent in 2002.

 

Political effects

MP Ströbele committed himself in the past to topics centred around citizens' rights, policies of development of third world countries and non-military security issues. He did not refrain from formulating positions not in accordance with the majority of his party in parliament.
That the Greens will orientate their political demands towards Ströbele's arguments however, seems not very likely: he only represents a minor faction of his party and a chancellor Schröder might look for majorities with other parties concerning citizen's rights issues or foreign affairs. That is, why Greens will probably not have recognisable greater impact on government - apart from providing social security to some party members in forms of posts as minister or state's secretary.

The Ströbele factor therefore is most painful for the PDS; on German politics - on which the Democratic Socialists had no influence anyway - the changes in parliament will hardly have any effect worth mentioning.

(end of article)